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![]() What Katrina can teach us about financial markets
» Posted by Martin Weil on September 19, 2005
Catastrophes are relatively rare events, yet they have enormous consequences when they do occur. Investors and the financial press, both here and abroad, are questioning whether our much-vaunted financial markets could sustain a disruption of similar magnitude without parallel consequences. Without meaning to sound glib, my first reaction is "Alan Greenspan is no Michael Brown." While stewarding the US economy through one of its greatest eras in history, Federal Reserve chief Greenspan has adroitly managed financial crisis after financial crisis - notably the 1987 stock market crash just weeks after he was first appointed; financial collapses in Mexico, Thailand and Russia; the implosion of Long Term Capital Management; the 9/11 attacks; and the collapse of dot-com stock market bubble. As chief banker to the world's greatest economy, and more recently to the world's greatest debtor nation as well, the head of the Federal Reserve has come to be on a par with the world's major national leaders. Mr. Greenspan's historic term in this position expires in January 2006. There are hints that the Administration may ask him to stay on until May. But at that point, Mr. Greenspan's legal time limit will be up. Former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, speaking to the annual Federal Reserve gathering at Jackson Hole, commented "Looking forward, our loss ... around fiscal discipline, our currently projected 10-year fiscal deficits...our extremely low personal savings rate and high levels of personal debt, all suggest that the next Fed Chairman could face -- at some point in the future, there's no way of knowing whether it is years out or sooner -- an even greater need for the understanding and experience to deal with serious market difficulties." One does not need to be a financial guru to recognize that our asset markets are routinely subject to upset. Occasionally, these upsets are "Katrina"-sized events, producing major challenges for the orderly functioning of capital market systems. Will the Bush Administration be able to overcome an apparent penchant for political cronyism to appoint someone with the requisite credentials and acumen to step into the void that will be left by the departure of Mr. Greenspan? Someone who will act, and act swiftly and appropriately when the next crisis roils the financial system? In our increasingly globalized and highly leveraged economy, that is a question of critical importance to investors and to the world's financial markets.
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