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Why the economy is a lot stronger than you (I) think
» Posted by Martin Weil on February 09, 2006
The consensus view for the past few years has been that the US economy, dollar and interest rates are increasingly vulnerable, largely due to our ballooning trade deficit with the Far East. The parallel to this line of thought is a US savings rate that is apparently at historic lows. Conventional wisdom holds that the US has been ignoring its basic needs for investment and has instead embarked upon an orgy of self-indulgent consumption. But here comes Michael Mandel, writing in the current BusinessWeek online, making a very persuasive case that investment in the US may be dramatically under-counted. That the US dollar has not collapsed, that US interest rates remain low, that foreigners continue to pour money into investments in the US and our economy continues to grow at a moderate pace has, to say the least, posed a problem for those who hold the consensus view. Various counter-theories have been put forth - including one with the amusing name of "dark matter" - in an attempt to reconcile a glaring economic paradox. Mandel is the first to propose an alternative explanation to the conventional wisdom with any serious grasp of economic data. The consequences of his theory, if he is correct - that current measurements of investment and GDP are antiquated and ill-equipped for an "information-based" economy - are profound. Perhaps Wall Street economists (Stephen Roach, are you listening?) have been wrongly crying wolf all these years...
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