While I am still holding to the "slowdown" as opposed to "recession" thesis, the possibilities of the latter got a significant boost this week as the Homebuilders Confidence index (see prior post) slipped yet further to a level last seen just prior to the 1990-1991 recession. What would change my mind? The 10-Year Treasury would have to slip below 4.75. As of this AM, the 10-Year was at 4.88 and dropping rapidly.

Previous entry: Slowdown/Recession watch - summer edition
Next entry: Heart surgery in Malaysia & liposuction in Brazil

Back to Martin's View main page