» Posted by Martin Weil on March 30, 2007

Significantly negative stock performance follows the acquisition of very large homes by company CEOs.

So writes researcher David Yermack of NY University in this article, an extract from a new research paper on the relationship between stock performance and the homes of CEOs. It used to be said that when a company hired a famous architect to design and build a flagship headquarters, the end was near. Yermack's study seems to suggest the same stock price predictive value holds for CEO mansions.

» Posted by Martin Weil on March 14, 2007

While the media tend to parrot the talking points of the investment business that the current market sell-off is contained to what is known as the "subprime" residential loan business, Paul Kasriel at Northern Trust begs to differ.

Kasriel notes that a sharp decline in retail sales (red line) has traditionally presaged cuts in the Fed Funds rate (blue line), recessions (grey bars), or both.

» Posted by Martin Weil on March 07, 2007

So recommends recent research on children of the affluent, as profiled in this CBS Marketwatch article.

» Posted by Martin Weil on March 01, 2007

We are looking for moderate growth in the economy going forward. Fed Chief Ben Bernanke in testimony this week to the US House Budget Committee.

Yes, it is possible we can get a recession in the latter months of 2007. Former Fed Chief Alan Greenspan, speaking at a conference in Hong Kong.