Yet, on closer inspection, we are indeed living through a global shift in the balance of power very similar to that which occurred in the 1870s. This is the story of how an over-extended empire sought to cope with an external debt crisis by selling off revenue streams to foreign investors. The empire that suffered these setbacks in the 1870s was the Ottoman empire. Today it is the US.

So writes historian Ferguson in the FT, "An Ottoman Warning for America." Ferguson's thesis echoes that of earlier historian Paul Kennedy in The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers. Many will argue that the extraordinary financial strength of the US will enable us to overcome the as-extraordinary mountain of indebtedness that has been amassed in the past years. However, the historical record, Kennedy demonstrates, is not highly encouraging.

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