» Posted by Martin Weil on February 11, 2008

Before you can say "Barack Obama is president of the United States," the economy will be growing faster again.

That forecast is based on the rise in the five-year Treasury yield from its lowest level relative to two- and 10- year notes since 2001. The last two times that happened was during the recessions of 1990 and 2001, and the economy began to expand within nine months.

"We're actually starting to see tell-tale signs by the market that it expects the economy to be in recovery in six to nine months," said James Caron, head of U.S. interest-rate strategy in New York at Morgan Stanley.

From Bloomberg

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