» Posted by Martin Weil on February 13, 2010

No one questions that economics and strongly-held economic beliefs played a role in the financial meltdown. You can vote here for the economists you think most contributed to the global financial crisis.

» Posted by Martin Weil on February 10, 2010

The former IMF Chief Economist testified today before the US Senate Budget Committee on the state of, and prospects for, the global economy. He concludes his lengthy remarks, covering the prospects for a slowdown in 2010, ongoing problems in the Eurozone and a continuing boom in the emerging markets with the following, somewhat chilling, concluding point:

We are steadily becoming more vulnerable to economic disaster on an epic scale.

» Posted by Martin Weil on October 29, 2009

I heard a story the other day from an old French lady who was in her 100's when she died. In the 1920's she remembers the U.S. being an emerging market very much like China is today. The 19th century was the European century, the 20th was the American century and the 21st will be China's century.

Ben Watson, RBS Group, quoted in a Bloomberg article on current investor sentiment.

Let's not forget that, if the parallels continue, during the 1920's the US stock market soared, only to crash horribly in 1929, ushering in the Great Depression and ultimately WWII. The "American Century" was not only Henry Ford, Leave it to Beaver and a man on the moon.

» Posted by Martin Weil on September 15, 2009

They are the four countries from which we import the most oil. Add Russia, Angola, Nigeria, Iraq and one or two other less than friendly nations and you account for the nearly 66% of our oil consumption that we imported in 2007 according to this map courtesy of O&G.

» Posted by Martin Weil on September 10, 2009

So argues Simon Johnson in this Washington Post piece. Johnson is the former chief economist for the IMF and a prominent critic of the 2008 bank bailouts. He makes the point that out of control health care costs are the most serious threat to the US' long-term economic prosperity and that reform that addresses this issue should be taken seriously.

» Posted by Martin Weil on September 04, 2009

If the sacred cow gets mad cow disease, you've got to put it down.

That's Barry Ritholz on why the Treasury should have taken over Citi and other major banks that were insolvent in 2008 instead of bailing them out. He continues, "The problem with bailouts in general is when an industry or company goes bankrupt it typically means that there is a structural flaw in the setup of that company.

Instead of fixing the problem we're essentially covering up the cracks with a lot of cash. We (still) have banks that are engaged in any manner of highly leveraged, highly reckless speculation. We have yet to fix that."

» Posted by Martin Weil on June 10, 2009

From the NY Times

» Posted by Martin Weil on February 23, 2009

According this this article in the International Herald Tribune, the US remains the world's largest manufacturer, in 2007 producing $2.5 in goods for every $1 produced in China. What are we best at? Heavy manufacturing it seems - from aircraft to turbines for power plants and specialties like farm equipment and, of course, electronics. GE, General Motors, International Business Machines, Boeing and Hewlett-Packard are among the largest manufacturers by revenue.

» Posted by Martin Weil on February 05, 2009

For my money, I believe Ed Leamer at Anderson and Paul Kasriel at Northern Trust to be two of the best economic forecasters in the business. If they are right, the markets are probably not yet pricing in a Q! & Q2 GDP shock. But there may be a dim light at the end of the tunnel after that.

Graph courtesy Calculated Risk

» Posted by Martin Weil on January 04, 2009

So said President Hoover, seen here with his council of advisers, following the 1929 stock market crash.

According to an article in today's NY Times, "In the midst of the deepest recession in the experience of most Americans, many professional forecasters are optimistically heading into the new year declaring that the worst may soon be over."

At this stage, such a statement clearly needs to be taken with a healthy dose of skepticism.