» Posted by Martin Weil on June 17, 2008

The last time US consumers were this pessimistic, Jimmy Carter was in the White House, gas prices had broken through the $1 per gallon barrier - equivalent to today's $4 per barrel - and the Fed Funds rate was in the process of rising from 5% to a record high 19%.

Chart from Haver Analytics, link The Big Picture

» Posted by Martin Weil on May 29, 2008

Yes, there is a silver lining.

» Posted by Martin Weil on April 15, 2008

One possibility - Give it away.

Modest Needs exists "To prevent otherwise financially self-sufficient individuals and families from entering the cycle of poverty, when this might be avoided with a small amount of well-timed financial assistance."

» Posted by Martin Weil on March 21, 2008

...the fractional assessment of homes was easily the largest single government housing subsidy in the postwar era, and it was among the largest categories of social expenditure of any kind, direct or indirect. Fractional assessment of residential property provided a subsidy that was forty times greater than federal spending for public housing. It was ten times greater than the home mortgage interest deduction. It was five times as costly as more controversial "welfare" programs like Aid to Families with Dependent Children. Although fractional assessment did not show up on official government budgets, on the eve of the tax revolt it was providing more benefits than any other social policy in America except for the twin blockbusters of the federal budget, Social Security and Medicare.

Tyler Cowen again, citing The Permanent Tax Revolt.

» Posted by Martin Weil on February 17, 2008

An article on affordable overseas retirement at Marketwatch got me to thinking. As I have at least two clients seriously contemplating retirement abroad, I started doing some research on the topic.

For those interested in life abroad, there are numerous informational resources readily available on the internet. A place to start might be this 2008 Quality of Life rankings of more than 100 countries. My brief search so far turned up the following interesting looking informational sites: International Living and EscapeArtist.

The Marketwatch article cites lower costs of living (not too surprisingly, wealthier individuals are also found in this group), easier lifestyle and affordable healthcare as some of the major drivers of a growing trend.

» Posted by Martin Weil on December 13, 2007

Stockton real estate broker Cesar Dias has launched the RepoBus, a van that carries prospective buyers to foreclosed homes in a city that has one of the highest foreclosure rates in the state.

The LA Times has the full story

» Posted by Martin Weil on November 27, 2007

We will get back to a normal market when people buy a home to live in it, not invest in it.

Ed Leamer, head of UCLA's Anderson Forecast, in an article in the LA Times. Leamer, who has had an excellent record forecasting economic trends, expects home prices across the board in Southern California to continue declining through 2009.

» Posted by Martin Weil on November 26, 2007

The property was purchased in January 2005 for $1,157,000. The combined first and second mortgages totalled $1,156,730 leaving a downpayment of $270.

By April, the owners were able to find refinancing through Countrywide with a $999,999 first mortgage. This mortgage was an Option ARM with a 1% teaser rate. Also in April of 2005, they took out a simultaneous second mortgage for $215,000 pulling out their first $58,000...

So look at their situation: They are living in a million dollar plus home, making payments less than those renting, and they "made" $58,000 in their first 4 months of ownership.

Apparently, these owners liked how hard their house was working for them, so they opened a revolving line of credit (HELOC) in August 2005 for $293,000. In December of 2005, they extended their HELOC to $397,990. In June of 2006, they extended their HELOC to $485,000.

In April of 2007, the well ran dry ...

So by April 2007, they have a first mortgage (Option ARM with a 1% teaser rate) for $999,999, and a HELOC for $491,000. These owners pulled $333,000 in HELOC money to fuel consumer spending. Assuming they spent the entire HELOC and assuming the negative amortization on the first mortgage has increased the loan balance, the total debt on the property exceeds $1,500,000. ... if the property actually sells at this [$1,149,000 asking] price, the lender on the HELOC (Washington Mutual) will lose over $300,000.

These owners will probably just walk away. I doubt they have any assets. They never put any money into the deal, they pulled out $333,000 in cash, and they got to live in Turtle Ridge for 3 years. Not a bad deal -- for them.

from The Irvine Housing Blog

» Posted by Martin Weil on October 23, 2007

The horrific Southern California fires remind us that disaster generally does not provide much warning to its victims. The LA Times posts an excellent checklist that every homeowner (and renter) may wish to read, "What Your Fire Insurance Can Do." (registration may be required) Not mentioned is our recommendation of adding a "replacement cost rider" on personal articles to all home and renter policies.

One very useful suggestion is to videotape your home, room by room, providing a narrative as you go. Make sure to open and record the contents of all closets, drawers, garages, attics and basements. It should take an hour or two. Fire victims report one of the main tasks they face after the event is creating lists, everything from furniture to how many pairs of underwear they owned. A videotape (obviously stored offsite) is an excellent inventory record for this purpose.

» Posted by Martin Weil on October 20, 2007

Brian Harris makes a 30 percent annual return on his Roth individual retirement account, but his money is not invested in a soaring biotechnology stock or a hot currency fund.

Instead, Mr. Harris, a music teacher from Tucson, owns about 25 marimbas, xylophones and timpani. Using the money in his retirement account, Mr. Harris buys the instruments for less than $1,000 each. He then rents them to his students for up to $60 a month. The rental income flows straight back into the I.R.A.

From the NY Times' "Exotic IRA's..."