MW Investment Strategy Group: Martins View http://www.mwinvest.com/site/ 2008-04-30T01:38:43+00:00 I guess everything is made in China http://www.mwinvest.com/site/archives/2008/04/i_guess_everyth.html Police in southern China have discovered a factory manufacturing Free Tibet flags, media reports say. The factory in Guangdong had been completing overseas orders for the flag of the Tibetan government-in-exile.

Reported by Neatorama

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60Things I Didn't Know Martin Weil 2008-04-30T01:38:43+00:00
Quote of the week http://www.mwinvest.com/site/archives/2008/04/quote_of_the_we_3.html Some folks celebrate their last home mortgage payment by setting fire to their loan agreement. Lately, some people behind on their mortgages are simply setting fire to their homes.

From this article in the LA Times (registration required)

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60Things I Didn't Know Martin Weil 2008-04-21T18:44:10+00:00
Wherein the WSJ gets on the income disparity bandwagon http://www.mwinvest.com/site/archives/2008/04/wherein_the_wsj.html In a surprisingly populist tone, this weekend's edition of the Wall Street Journal examines the income gap between rich and poor in the US. The article (subscription required) finds vast disparities in the economy of the last 6 years, with literally all of the economic gains accruing to the top 10% of the wealth spectrum. The graph below tells the whole story in one picture.

P1-AL265_COMPAR_20080420183003.gif

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10Economy Martin Weil 2008-04-21T05:26:43+00:00
What to do with your tax rebate http://www.mwinvest.com/site/archives/2008/04/what_to_do_with.html One possibility - Give it away.

Modest Needs exists "To prevent otherwise financially self-sufficient individuals and families from entering the cycle of poverty, when this might be avoided with a small amount of well-timed financial assistance."

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30Personal Finance Martin Weil 2008-04-15T15:34:46+00:00
Waste in the US http://www.mwinvest.com/site/archives/2008/04/waste.html In pictures
1170783025.jpg
Seattle artist Chris Jordan's photo essay offers a remarkable visual portrait of our modern consumption. The image above is comprised of 1.14 million brown paper supermarket bags, the number used in the US every hour.

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99Misc. Martin Weil 2008-04-02T16:40:00+00:00
So why does anyone ever vote GOP? http://www.mwinvest.com/site/archives/2008/04/so_why_does_any_1.html (Since it is the political season)

Princeton political scientist Larry Bartels' soon-to-be-released new book, analyzes the difference that the President's party affiliation makes to the distribution of income during the four years of the president's term.

When a Republican president is in power, people at the top of the income distribution experience much larger real income gains than those at the bottom... when a Democrat is in power: those who benefit the most are the lower income groups....Strikingly, compared to Republicans, Democratic presidents generate higher income gains for all income groups.

So writes Harvard economics professor Dani Rodrik

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60Things I Didn't Know Martin Weil 2008-04-01T20:10:26+00:00
Credit crisis for kindergarteners http://www.mwinvest.com/site/archives/2008/03/credit_crisis_f.html Steve Waldman offers an illustration for everyone, not just 5 year-olds.

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10Economy Martin Weil 2008-03-24T02:46:18+00:00
How the government subsidizes YOUR home http://www.mwinvest.com/site/archives/2008/03/how_the_governm.html ...the fractional assessment of homes was easily the largest single government housing subsidy in the postwar era, and it was among the largest categories of social expenditure of any kind, direct or indirect. Fractional assessment of residential property provided a subsidy that was forty times greater than federal spending for public housing. It was ten times greater than the home mortgage interest deduction. It was five times as costly as more controversial "welfare" programs like Aid to Families with Dependent Children. Although fractional assessment did not show up on official government budgets, on the eve of the tax revolt it was providing more benefits than any other social policy in America except for the twin blockbusters of the federal budget, Social Security and Medicare. Tyler Cowen again, citing The Permanent Tax Revolt.]]> 30Personal Finance Martin Weil 2008-03-21T17:40:26+00:00 Why have burglaries declined? http://www.mwinvest.com/site/archives/2008/03/why_have_burgla.html The short answer: low wages in China.

That at least according to economist Tyler Cowen, who says that the falling cost of most consumer items and their increasingly short product life cycle mean that stolen goods are not worth what they once were.

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60Things I Didn't Know Martin Weil 2008-03-20T16:39:56+00:00
Finish that sentence http://www.mwinvest.com/site/archives/2008/03/finish_that_sen.html A century ago we had banks. They created systemic risk. We decided to regulate them in order to limit the systemic risk they could create. That was wise.

Now we have non-banks. They create systemic risk...Brad DeLong

I have long believed that our global financial system had some time back outgrown in size and complexity the monitoring tools available to the banking regulators in the US and abroad. Sooner or later, it was natural that this system was going to proceed to excess and have a major systemic crisis.

This looks like it.

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10Economy Martin Weil 2008-03-18T05:28:26+00:00
What is bought vs. what is sold - a morality tale http://www.mwinvest.com/site/archives/2008/03/i_for_one_am_so.html From Odd Numbers

Out of 20 S.E.C. settlements for market timing by mutual funds, 16 involved (Elliot) Spitzer when he was New York's attorney general.

The percentage of illegally-gotten money that mutual funds had to give back in the Spitzer cases was 80 percent -- almost full restitution.

In the 4 settlements not involving Spitzer, the S.E.C. settled for 7 percent.

Why the gap?

Part of it was Spitzer's aggressiveness, but the other factor was that younger S.E.C. officials usually go work at the firms they're in charge of regulating. So, the incentive to bring the hammer is, ummm, somewhat compromised.


Justin Wolfers explains why this should matter:

It seems to me that the truly important violations of the public trust are when the power we give our government officials is sold, rather than what government officials choose to buy. Yet our political scandals are too often dominated by private mistakes, rather than public misdeeds. This is why I'm more worried about what the SEC is selling than what Eliot Spitzer has been buying.
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05Consumer Issues Martin Weil 2008-03-13T04:06:16+00:00
Quote of the day (economics junkies only) http://www.mwinvest.com/site/archives/2008/03/quote_of_the_da.html The Fed is worried about a lack of liquidity in the credit markets. The Fed acts to make the markets more liquid. Is the Fed's action foolish? We hope so!

We like to think: "market -- trade -- liquidity -- good, etc.", forgetting the Glosten-Milgrom point that liquidity often rests upon the presence of fools.

If the problem is that there are too few fools in the market, it might make perfect sense for the Fed to step in as a fool of last resort. With any luck, once the Fed starts acting foolishly, other market participants will follow suit.

From Felix Salmon

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10Economy Martin Weil 2008-03-12T18:18:39+00:00
The Sage of Omaha speaks http://www.mwinvest.com/site/archives/2008/03/the_sage_of_oma.html Warren Buffett offers up his annual homily. Buffett's Chairman's Letter (pgs 3-22) is a must-read for investors.

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25Investing Martin Weil 2008-03-05T15:10:11+00:00
Housing slumps & recession http://www.mwinvest.com/site/archives/2008/02/housing_sale_sl.html

Image courtesy of Calculated Risk

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10Economy Martin Weil 2008-02-27T20:33:43+00:00
Dark before the dawn - one hopes http://www.mwinvest.com/site/archives/2008/02/dark_before_the.html Public views of the U.S. economy, already quite negative, have plummeted since January. Just 17% currently rate the nation's economy as excellent or good, down from 26% last month. The percentage of Americans rating the economy as "poor" has increased even more dramatically, from 28% to 45% in one month...

The public's ratings of the national economy now are nearly as poor as they were in early 1992.

From Pew Research

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10Economy Martin Weil 2008-02-22T16:48:02+00:00